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The Risk Of The Spillover Of Insecurity From Somalia And Responses To It

By Prof. Kinfe Abraham  

President, Ethiopian International Institute for Peace and Development (EIIPD) and HADAD (The Horn of Africa Democracy and Development) International Lobby

  

When Barre left Mogadishu in 1991, there was chaos in Somalia.  The Hawiyee split into two.  By 1992, there were 13 factions in Somalia.  They fought one another.  The end result was factional fighting which continues to this day.  Unfortunately, the violence is not restricted to Somalia.  The problems related to terrorism which faced Kenya and Ethiopia had their origins in Somalia.1  

The Somalia Calling

 Security Concerns Caused by Somalia

Life and property are not guaranteed in Somalia.  The Islamic courts and the militia have been trying to maintain law and order.  This has some effect in spite of the fact that Somalis are not known for their adherence to extreme brands of Islam.  

Some form of government is necessary to do away with the anarchy. The alternative is continued chaos.  The Transitional National Government (TNG) faces many challenges. There is still opposition to it from the factional leaders.  The underlying challenge is the threat of international terrorism.2 When it comes to security, Somalia is alleged to be a hub or potential hub of international terrorists.  It is said to have served as a strategic base and a launching pad for international terrorism in the Horn and much of East Africa.

Given the above, Somalia is said to have provided safe haven for terrorists.  Terrorists thrive in a condition of statelessness.  One reason for the choice of Somalia is that it is located at a transit point from the Gulf, the Middle East, Afghanistan, etc.  

Weapons are easily accessible. Small arms and even grenades are easily accessible for purchase and are very cheap. Islamic NGOs are exploited by terrorists.  There is also illicit money transaction.3  

The Risks of the Spillover of Insecurity from Somalia  

The former US Ambassador to Ethiopia, David Shinn, in a recent study entitled “Ethiopia Coping with Islamic Fundamentalism Before and After September 11” has brought to light the renewed threat which Ethiopia and the other Horn of African countries face. Shinn refers to how this threat has changed in content and orientation over time, stating: 

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi commented in the mid-1990s that the most significant long-term threat to Ethiopia's security is Islamic fundamentalism. At that time, the principal external threats emanated from Somalia and, especially, the Sudan. The concern with the Sudan has, at least for the time being, dissipated itself. On the other hand, the events of September 11, 2001 have caused Ethiopia to focus on the situation in Somalia, particularly on the threat posed by hostile Islamic groups such as Al Itihaad al Islamia (Unity of Islam).4 

Shinn also underscored the significance and vulnerability of Ethiopia adding, "Ethiopia is the linchpin to the Horn of Africa. What happens there impacts the rest of the region."  He then explained why especial attention should be paid to Ethiopia in assessing the future evolution of Islam noting, "the importance of Islam in Ethiopia is not well appreciated by the United States, and U .S. officials are well advised to pay attention to Ethiopian Islam and the way in which Ethiopia interacts with its Islamic neighbors."5

 Ethiopia has been exposed to some incidents of threat posed by extremist groups including the assassination attempt on the life of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in June of 1995.  Much has not changed since 1995. What has changed is the global awareness about the virile risk of religious extremism in the Horn and elsewhere. Needless to add, worry about Somalia becoming a safe haven for fugitives from Afghanistan has accentuated the anxiety which is widely felt in the West as a whole. Nevertheless, there are also other historical and current factors which highlight Ethiopia's vulnerability. The former U.S. Ambassador also confirms this view in the passage below: 

This analysis will argue that September 11 has not significantly altered Ethiopia's security situation vis-ŕ-vis the threat from Islamic fundamentalism. What has changed is a new interest by the United States and others in possible Al Qaeda links to the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia, and the prospect that Ethiopia, among others, can take political advantage of this new situation.6 

Nevertheless, the understanding of the role of Islam must be put in a longer historical context in order to understand why it might continue to be a factor in the security evolution in the Horn of Africa in general and Ethiopia in particular. The Ambassador had this to add, “But before getting to the end of the story, it is important to look first at Ethiopia’s historical interactions with Islam and the status of lslam in Ethiopia today. An understanding of Ethiopia's position also requires a review of the last decade of Islamic fundamentalist threats to Ethiopia from Sudan and Somalia.”7  

The Strength and Vulnerability of Neighboring States – Ethiopia

As the country which provided safe haven to the early Moslem refugees and as one which embraced Islam centuries ago, Ethiopia ought to be exempt from Jihad and extremist incursions from Somalia or other states. Indeed, this is also in line with the wish of Prophet Mohammed.  According to tradition, a group of Arab followers of Islam in danger of persecution by local authorities in Arabia are said to have been given safe haven in the Aksumite Kingdom of the Ethiopian Christian highlands early in the seventh century. Besides, they were well treated and permitted to practice their religion as they wished. Consequently, the Prophet Muhammad had said, 'Ethiopia should not be targeted for jihad'.  

However, in spite of the magnanimity which was extended to the early Moslem refugees, Islam in imperial Ethiopia has historically been accorded a secondary place.   Even so, Christian-Islamic relations in Ethiopia remained generally cordial until the Islamic raids led by Ahmed Gragn who invaded the Ethiopian highlands from the Somali port of Zeila in the late fifteenth century.  

It is also worthy of note that Ethiopia, despite the wish of the Prophet, was again exposed to two other Islamic invasions.  One was by Egypt in 1875 and the other by the Sudanese Mahadists in 1888. However, both ended with decisive Ethiopian victories. But, these invasions reflected more of competition for power rather than profound religious motives. Even so, the two invasions also evoked memories of Christian victories which have produced a feeling of vindictiveness among some Moslem countries. The extent of this is, for instance, highlighted by the Sudanese invasion and the Ethiopian response to it as can be discerned in the passage below:    

The last major, organized threat from Islam occurred in 1888, when the forces of the Mahdi in the Sudan sacked the former capital Gonder and burned many of its churches. The following year the Ethiopians defeated the Mahdist troops at the Battle of Metema on the Ethiopian-Sudanese border.8 

But it should be noted that the above history reflects more the Christian-Muslim hegemonic competition for control of the Ethiopian highlands rather than an early effort to impose Islamic fundamentalist rule. Event so, it should once again be emphasized that the non-Muslims, particularly those who held political power, had not forgotten this background as they confronted more threats in subsequent years.   This is probably relevant even at present.    

The above view does not, however, imply that Moslems were fairly treated in Ethiopian history. This, to a large measure, had to do with the historical dynastic legitimacy claimed by Christian Ethiopian rulers and the topography of the country, which consigned Moslems to the costal lowland areas.   This point is further developed below:   

Islam expanded gradually in Ethiopia, especially in the lower-lying parts of the country. Most Ethiopian Muslims belong to indigenous ethnic groups; they are not of Arab descent. Always treated as a secondary religion, Islam emerged in the shadow of Christianity, and Muslims experienced discrimination.9  

Christian-Moslem Relations in the Horn of Africa Ethiopia 

Nevertheless, it should also be noted that the Christian-Moslem relationship in Ethiopia was characterized more by cohabitation and friendship rather than hostilities.  This was so because, there were only a few brief periods when Christian rulers tried to suppress Islam. This, for instance, was true of the period around the rule of Gonder in the seventeenth century, when Muslim communities enjoyed considerable autonomy.   

But, the antagonism between Christianity and Islam was accentuated by colonialism and what transpired following the Italian occupation of Eritrea.  However, this had to do with domestic power struggle which was taken advantage of by external players.  For instance, three internal developments in the twentieth century had revived Christian concerns about Islam. One of them was that upon the death of Emperor Menelik in 1913, "his grandson, Lij Iyasu, inherited the throne. Iyasu was pushed aside after three years, having made what the Christian leadership considered too many overtures to Muslims, renewing concerns that followers of Islam might try to assume power.  

As noted above, the other factor which had bearing on Christian-Moslem relationship was the colonial policy of Italy which was skewed in favor of Moslems with the aim of fostering hostility between them. This was a ploy of the colonial strategy of divide and control as can be seen below:

 Following its invasion of Ethiopia in 1936, Italy took a number of measures that favored Muslims at the expense of Christians, a policy that led to some incidents that Christians did not soon forget.10 

Another development which negatively impacted the Christian-Moslem relationship in Ethiopia was the secessionist struggle of Eritrea which took root following the end of the Italian and British rule of it. The event which led to this was that, "in 1961 the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) began an armed struggle to create an independent Eritrean state. A largely Islamic movement, the ELF drew its fighters from Muslim nomadic tribes, and its leaders called for a jihad against Christian Ethiopia." Nevertheless, subsequently the leadership of the Eritrean independence movement was taken over by Christians who continued to hold the upper hand when Eritrea became independent in 1993.11  

The Ethiopian Response to Extremist Islam Separation of State and Religion 

The current EPRDF-led government which overthrew the Derg (1991) has done much by way of separating state and religious affairs. This was especially true of the period following the overthrow of Emperor Haile Sellasie I in 1974 who was close to the church by the Socialist/Military regime (1974-91). One can, therefore, safely say that religious troubles were, to a large measure, fostered by outsiders. But there are also other domestic factors which have made Christian-Moslem relationship in Ethiopia less problematic than would have otherwise been the case. The implications of this on the acceptance or rejection of ideas of Islamic fundamentalism in Ethiopia are further elaborated upon below: 

As a result of the way, Islam has developed in Ethiopia and due to more recent concerted efforts to avoid religious conflicts, Ethiopian Muslims are generally not receptive to Islamic fundamentalism. Muslims in Ethiopia tend to identify first with their ethnic kin. They are geographically intermixed throughout the country except for overwhelming concentrations in Somali- and Afar-inhabited areas. Although the Supreme Islamic Council is an important organization, political power among Ethiopian Muslims tends to be decentralized. By and large, the Ethiopian Islamic community is a beginning one.12

During the imperial rule which was based on dynastic credentials of succession, only those who belonged to the Solomonic line of kings were allowed to assume power.  Hence, the political scene was dominated by Christian rulers to the detriment of adherence of Islam and other religions.   But, this was terminated after the overthrow of the imperial rule in 1974.   Since then state and religion have been effectively separated.  

The Impact of Constitutional Reform on Christian-Moslem Relations   

The above happened during the period of the military government, but it was enshrined in the new federal constitution of Ethiopia which was promulgated by the EPRDF in 1995.  The new constitution has declared the equality of all Ethiopians regardless of nationality, color and religion.  Accordingly, all Ethiopians, without any prejudice to religion, can run and be elected for the highest office in government.   

Further, as a result of the constitutional change more and more adherents of Islam in Ethiopia have begun to participate in the political process by being elected as well as appointed.   

The aforesaid constitutional transformation has reduced the tension between adherents of different religious belief systems. It has also extended freedom of worship to all citizens.  This, in practical terms, has separated state and religious affairs.  It has also created a more convivial and harmonies national environment of peaceful coexistence and tolerance.   

To realize the above, constitutional remedies have been taken to boost the healing process of past religious and national conflicts which have plagued Ethiopia for decades, if not centuries.  These include the provisions made on:

  1.  The recognition of the equality of nations and nationalities which includes the right to determine their status;

  2. Acceptance of the process and praxis of elected representation, including the concept of an elected government with a defined tenure of office and briefs of accountable mandate; and

  3. Freedom of the individual to practice the religion of his/her choice without any form of discrimination.13

Apart from the above measures, on the relationship between Christianity, Islam and other religions, Donald Levine's example of the common terrain of Ethiopian culture is also an area to capitalize on. This is especially important in order to promote a healthy relationship among all religions in Ethiopia. He writes:  

The larger Ethiopian culture area subscribed to a belief in a supreme heavenly deity, and use similar words to represent this deity--most commonly, cognates of waq, appear among the Afar, Shoa, Somalia, Oromo, Gurage, Hadiya, Timbaro, Sidamo, Konso, Burji, Tsamako, Gamu, Dasenech, and Majangirr: The root [word] also appears in Geez wuqabi, a person's divinely appointed guardian spirit. So one can view the peoples of Greater Ethiopia as monotheists, Semitic (Judaic, Christian, and Islamic) and local, who neverthe­less share a number of other kinds of symbolisms, like the special aura of respect for trees endowed with sacred significance. There has been a great deal of intermixing of different Ethiopian religions historically: Jews and Christians converted back and forth over the centuries, in ways unheard of elsewhere in the world; traditional Oromo rituals and Christian rituals were observed side by side at Zuqwala; Muslims, Christians, and Jews alike made the annual pilgrimage to Kulubi Gabriel; peoples of diverse backgrounds visited the shrine of Sheik Hussein.14

 FOOTNOTES 

1Kinfe Abraham, The Somalia Calling: The Crisis of Statehood and the Quest for Peace, ibid., p. 465.

2-3Ibid.

4David Shinn, Ethiopia Coping with Islamic Fundamentalism Before and After September 11.

5-12Ibid.

13The State of the Horn (Yearbook of the Eye on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa) Vol. VI, 1998, p. 159.

14Donald Levine, Cited in Ethiopia from Empire to Federation, 2001, p. 307.

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