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Can Somalia ever be normal?
After 13 years of clan warfare
and lawlessness, Somalia once more has a government, led by a president
and a prime minister. The problem is that the capital, Mogadishu, remains
too dangerous for them to work in.
President Abdullahi Yusuf is
treated as a visiting head of state, enjoying red carpet treatment and
tight security in Kenya, where members of a transitional parliament
elected him. But in Somalia, there is no police force capable of
guaranteeing his security, and that of his ministers, in a country with an
estimated 60,000 armed militiamen. Moreover, sceptics abound after the
failure of 13 previous attempts to set up a new government for Somalia.
Some say this time will be different because Somalis are tired of
fighting, and that all of Somalia's neighbors and factions are included
for the first time.
Crazy
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One of Mr. Yusuf's first acts
following his election was to call for 20,000 foreign peacekeepers,
who would both disarm the many militias and protect his government.
"That is a crazy idea," says
one of the key Mogadishu warlords, Hussein Aideed, before he was named
deputy prime minister in the new government. He says the presence of
such a large foreign force would only unite all the different Somali
factions against it. |

Somalia
remains awash with guns |
Following the disaster of the
United States intervention in 1993, which ended after Somali gunmen were
filmed dragging the bodies of US troops through the streets, few western
powers are willing to risk the lives of their soldiers in Somalia. Before
Mr. Yusuf was elected, all the warlords pledged on the Koran to disarm
their militias but in Mogadishu, there is no sign of this happening -
there are just as many armed men on their checkpoints as before.
'Write
cheques'
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You
have leaders who do not trust each other but who were pushed and
pressured to form a government at all costs Hussein Aideed
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United Nations special envoy
to Somalia Winston Tubman says the international community will only
help if there is progress from the Somali side. "He is the president
of Somalia, he has to come up with plans, he has to say: 'This is what
we want to do and we have marshalled our efforts to this extent'.
"Once they see him taking
those kinds of steps, the international community will follow. As
opposed to if, he says 'I'm the president, write cheques for me.' It
doesn't work that way." |
Somalia's neighbors and donor
countries have spent two years and some $10m on the peace talks, which
culminated in Mr Yusuf’s election, but they are only now turning their
attention to the question of government security.
Builders or destroyers?
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Diplomats
are talking about using the officer corps of Somalia's last police
force as the basis of a new police service, backed up by some of the
militiamen, following a few weeks training.
But this re-mains an idea,
which has not even been agreed by everyone, and so it will be some
time before Mr Yusuf and his team are able to start the huge task they
have taken on, of rebuilding Somalia. The new government includes
most of Somalia's main warlords, to the dismay of some. |

President Yusuf (l) and Prime Minister Ali (r) have a huge task ahead |
"These
are the people who have destroyed our country, how can they rebuild it?"
asked one man, who did not want to be named. But others say it is better
to have them inside the process than outside. "The cabinet will have to
be a mixture of sinecures to keep the warlords happy and technocrats to do
the work," said one western diplomat closely involved in the peace
process.
Terror
and migration
The other
question is whether all men who have been fighting each other for so many
years will be able to work together. Again, naming the warlords as
ministers is intended to give them a stake in the new peace but Mr. Aideed
says there has still not been any reconciliation.
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Facts and figures about life in Somalia |
"This process is extremely
weak. You have leaders who do not trust each other but who were pushed
Driving around Mogadishu, the scale of the job awaiting Mr Yusuf and
his team, assuming they eventually get there, is obvious.
Government buildings, such
as ministries, schools and colleges, have become refugee camps for
people forced from their homes by years of fighting |
There are no public hospitals,
camels use the runway of the main international airport to graze and
business vehicles are stopped every few kilometres at a checkpoint where
militiamen, invariably chewing khat, a mild stimulant, use AK-47s to
extort money.
Amidst this anarchy, there are
very real fears that terror groups could set up training camps - one
reason why the international community has spent so much time and money on
bringing peace and stability back to Somalia. Mr Yusuf quickly pledged to
move against any such groups.
Apart from humanitarian concerns,
the other reason is the flow of Somali refugees to the west. Until
recently, Somalia was the country providing the highest number of
asylum-seekers in the UK. There are between one and three million Somalis
living abroad.
Sick
leader
Somalia's clan divisions were at
the heart of the long civil war. Mr Yusuf is from the Darod clan, based in
the north, whereas Mogadishu is home to their Hawiye rivals.
Furthermore, the former army
colonel has a slightly brutal reputation. But I did not meet a single
person in Mogadishu who said they did not want him to be their leader. "I
just want a government, any government will do," one man told me. The
question is whether those who have been fighting to rule Somalia for so
many years will be content to be mere ministers.
One of Somalia's most famous
singers, Muktar "Idi" Ramadan, is not sure. "They all still want to be
president and we cannot have 15 presidents in Somalia," he said. And
Hussein Aideed implicitly agrees.
He says that one reason why Mr
Yusuf was elected was that he is 70 years old and in poor health.
Fourteenth time lucky?
That raises the prospect of
factional fighting breaking out again, long before the new institutions
have had time to take root and ensure a smooth succession. But Somalis are
hoping that such gloomy scenarios do not materialise - and that their
country can become "normal" again.
Compared to some countries
destroyed by years of civil war, Somalia does have two advantages. Some
of the Somalis abroad are highly trained and could make a big difference
if they could be persuaded that it is safe to return home.
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And the
large business community has promised to back the peace process,
bringing their financial clout and expertise on board. It is now up
to President Yusuf, and the various warlords, backed by the
international community, to make sure that this peace process is 14th
time lucky for Somalia |

Mogadishu has been devastated by years of war |
our Ethiopians have
been injured along the disputed border with Eritrea after a spate of
blasts from freshly planted landmines, a senior UN official said last
month.
Phil Lewis, head of
the UN’s Mine Action Coordination Centre (MACC), said three anti-tank
mines had exploded and damaged vehicles in the last month. Another
landmine was discovered before it exploded.
They were the first
of newly planted landmines along the 1,000 km contested frontier that has
separated Ethiopia and Eritrea since early 2004.
"These are all
newly laid landmines," Lewis told reporters in the Ethiopian capital,
Addis Ababa. "They are of a concern because there have been four of them
in the last month. These weapons are indiscriminate so anyone in the wrong
place at the wrong time could be killed."
He said they were
unaware who had planted the landmines. All of the incidents had taken
place close to Humera, in the far western border region, some 850 km north
of Addis Ababa.
One landmine was
planted on a road used as a supply route for the Ethiopian army, who are
dug in opposite Eritrean forces along the border. The others were planted
on side roads.
"There have been
four of these anti-tank mines discovered since 25 March," he said. One was
discovered freshly covered. Three others detonated under a water truck and
a truck picking up stones, Lewis said.
"They are all on
side roads," he noted. "They have not been put on main roads; they have
been put on agricultural roads.
"The landmines are
Belgium-made and were used during the two-and-a-half year conflict that
broke out in May 1998 and claimed tens of thousands of lives. Details of
the attacks have only just emerged after UN peacekeepers carried out
investigations into the blasts and the landmine that was found.
The two countries
ended their conflict in December 2000 with a peace deal to resolve their
border dispute. A ruling by an independent commission on the new frontier
was, however, rejected by Ethiopia.
In 2003, about 40
cases of newly planted landmines were recorded in the region, while two
cases were reported in 2004. Around 30 people have been killed from newly
laid mines. Since the UN peacekeepers arrived in the two countries there
have been more than 400 casualties from landmine blasts, killing about 115
people.
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In Eritrea, the
MACC estimates that there are an estimated 1,500,000 to 1,650,000
mines and some 300,000 unexploded ordnance. Ethiopia is contaminated
with around two million mines.
The two nations are among
the most heavily mined countries in the world – a legacy of successive
conflicts over the last 70 years that have ravaged the Horn of Africa.
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Landmines |

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