Global Social Justice:  The Moral Responsibilities of the Rich to the Poor

Aids in Africa: Three Scenarios to 2025

The Image of Africa

Additional Reforms 

At the start of 1998, the FDRE concluded an agreement with the IMF to resume the program under the ESAF arrangement which also included an economic program for 1998/99 to be supported by a second annual ESAF arrangement. This was approved by the IMF Board in 1998. In line with this, Ethiopia forged ahead with its new structural and reform program of establishing its economy and reducing poverty.

This program, which was designed to be imple­mented in the context of a medium-term strategy during the period 1998/99–2000/01, reflected a strong sense of ownership by the govern­ment of Ethiopia. During this period, the FDRE economic strat­egy was geared towards accelerated and equitable economic growth in an environment of macro-economic stability.²⁰ 

Ethiopia: Selected Macro-Economic Indicators (Million Birr)²¹

III. Post–2000 Economic Review

According to a recent review of the IMF, which also concurs, with that of the World Bank during the ESAF-supported program period, economic growth averaged at around 3 percent and inflation, was close to 4 percent. This was achieved in spite of adverse factors including drought, a deterioration of terms of trade and pressure from the border conflict with Eritrea that erupted in May 1998. As a result, the government, which was confronted with

declining external grants and an increasing need for military spending, began to cut back on other expenditures.

Some of the negative consequences of the adverse environment of economic growth were that by 1998/99 fiscal deficit (including grants) had climbed to 8.5 percent of the GDP up from 2.4 percent in 1996/97. The external current account deficit (including grants) averaged 2.3 percent of the GDP in the first two years, but deteriorated in 1998/99. This was so because prices and the volume of coffee export dropped sharply. Again, reflecting the fall in export earnings and the weaker fiscal position, gross official reserves had declined by the end of 1998/99 to 2.8 months of imports of goods and services from 4.4 months at the end of 1996/97.²²

Regarding structural reforms, the government had sought to speed up, during the ESAF-supported program period, the reform agenda with respect to privatization, trade and exchange liberalization, the structure of the financial sector and the efficiency of its operations. Further, the modernization of the tax system was also speeded up in 1998.

Nevertheless, Ethiopia’s economic situation deteriorated in 1999/2000 because of severe drought conditions; a major worsening of its terms of trade associated with lower coffee export prices and the steep rise in petroleum import prices; and the impact of the border conflict.²³ Real GDP grew by an estimated 4½ percent and inflation remained subdued.  This was possible to achieve partly due to the availability of enhanced food aid which averted the rise of food price.  However, the fiscal deficit reached 12.4 percent of the GDP and was mostly financed by the central bank. Besides, excess reserves at the commercial banks surged and pressures in the foreign exchange market began to build up. To mitigate these pressures, the government imposed in January 2000 temporary restrictive measures, including a 10 percent import duty surcharge, a 100 percent advance deposit requirement for import applications and uneven ceilings across banks on their authority to approve import permits. Nonetheless, the external current account deficit, including grants, remained large, at 7½ (please see the table which follow) percent of the GDP and gross reserves dropped to two months of import cover. Meanwhile, liquid reserves fell to one month of import cover. ²⁴

As pointed out by the UN, OAU, EU, World Bank, IMF and the international community as a whole the conclusion of the Ethio-Eritrean conflict has opened a new vista of optimism. The IMF report of 2001, for instance, noted that considerable progress had been made by way of restoring peaceful conditions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. On June 18 2000, both countries signed a cease-fire agreement and there were no reported hostilities after that.

Further, on December 12, 2000, both countries signed a peace agreement that called for the immediate release of prisoners of war and the return of dislocated people which also set out the modalities for an investigation into the origins of the conflict. It was also agreed to establish a commission to decide through binding arbitration on war-related claims. This was also expected to chart the procedures and schedule for the demarcation of the border.²⁵ As the IMF report hastened to add, a United Nations peacekeeping force (consisting of 4,200 military personnel, including 220 military observers) has been deployed in a 12.5-mile buffer zone. Deployment had been completed by January-February 2001, after which the Ethiopian military withdrew to areas within the border of May 6, 1998. The UN force is expected to remain there until international arbitrators demarcate the 600-mile border.²⁶

Medium-Term Economic Strategy

 According to the 2001 report of the IMF, the government’s economic strategy was informed by the concern that Ethiopia remains one of the poorest countries in the world, notwithstanding some recent improvements in poverty indicators [see the interim Poverty Reduction Strategy

Paper

(PRSP)]. The IMF staff also shared the authorities’ view that Ethiopia’s development strategy which was formulated in the mid-1990s and reconfirmed in 2000 in the second five-year National Development Program (NDP), covering the period 2000–2005, rightly focused on poverty reduction. These were aimed to stimulate rural development by packaging and implementing a comprehensive food security program as a basis for conditions of high and sustainable economic growth. ²⁷

The IMF report also suggested that a systematic implementation of the program would return Ethiopia to the path of “rapid and sustainable growth.” It added that policies that encourage agricultural growth and improve

food security as well as reforms that facilitate private sector development would reduce “vulnerability to external shocks” over time. Further, it praised the strong ownership of the program by the Ethiopian authorities and stated that the implementation from the outset confirmed a strong commitment to public and financial sector reforms and the removal of restrictions. On the basis of this, the IMF staff recommended the approval of Ethiopia’s loan request for a three-year period by the Executive Board of funding.²⁸

Macro-Economic Indicators (1999/2000–2002/2003)²⁹

 1.   Ethiopia has the Lowest Gross National (GNI) per capita compared with the other five low income countries.  But, it has the second fastest growing economy.

2.    Mauritius has the fastest growth economy compared with the other middle-income countries.  But its growth rate is not higher than that of Ethiopia.

3.   Of the six high-income countries compared here, Saudi Arabia has the lowest GNI per capita.  It also has the lowest growth rate.  Switzerland is the country with the highest GNI per capita. 

4.   Ethiopia’s GNI is twice higher than that of Mozambique.  So the size of Ethiopia’s GNI is tolerably high.

The above four facts shows that with a 5.2 percent GNI growth rate Ethiopia will double its per capita income in 14 years. This gives a somewhat optimistic picture about the future.  Nevertheless, attempts should be made to stem the rapid growth of population.                         

References

11.  Ethiopian Investment Authority (EIA), Investing In Ethiopia, June, 1998

12-13. Ibid.

14.  Kinfe  Abraham , Ethiopia: From Bullets To The Ballot Box, New Jersey, RSP, 1994, P. 173

15. EIU, Country Report: Ethiopia, 1999/2000

16. National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), Quarterly Bulletin, Vol. 15, No. 3, Third Quarter, 1999/2000.

17. IMF, Ethiopia; Economic Reform from 1998/99 – 2000/01, 1998, 18-20. Ibid

21.     Mulu Ketsela , Office of the Prime Minister (PMO)

22.    IMF, African Department, Staff Report for the 2000 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year.

23-29. Ibid

To be continued in the next issue

The Image of Africa

Views express by Africans 

BBC World Service gains its biggest audience in Africa. Every week around 70m people tune into one of the services targeted at Africa. In order to understand better the context in which BBC programmes are being listened to the BBC commissioned a life-style and attitude survey covering 10 countries from East to West Africa – the first ever carried out on the continent. 

The countries surveyed were Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Rwanda, Zambia, Mozambique, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Ivory Coast. Those interviewed lived in urban areas and were representative of people in those areas. 

The survey’s purpose was to get a better understanding of how Africans see themselves, their neighbours and the rest of the world. 

Through this lens, a story emerges that throws a new light on the similarities and differences between countries on a number of critical issues. 

How Africans see themselves is at odds with how the rest of the world sees Africa.

 While the rest of the world might view Africa as a continent plagued by civil wars and official corruption, and individual countries as bankrupt states with starving populations ravaged by HIV/Aids - the Africans surveyed see themselves quite differently. 

Africans are generally positive about their lives, and they are proud to be African. Pan Africanism with a strong local flavour dominates the way people see themselves, other countries and the world. However, poverty and the slowness of governments in tackling its causes draws sharp criticism. Clearly the lack of full time paid work is a major challenge for all the countries surveyed. This is hardly surprising when only 1 in 5 have full time jobs. 

Africa emerges as deeply religious and strongly family centred, yet a continent in which attitudes towards traditional roles are changing and at times appear to be contradictory. 

Radio continues to be the most used information source for people and indeed dominates their leisure time activities. A special aspect of this research was to look for any differences between Muslims and non-Muslims. On many social and economic issues, there are more similarities than differences. However, when it comes to worldviews, Muslims are much more likely to be sharply critical of the US and Tony Blair and George W Bush. Clearly, the situation in Iraq and the feeling of a faith under siege has thrown a long shadow stretching from the Tigris to the Zambezi. 

African Landscape – Our Image 

Images of Africa and various African countries abound. But how do Africans believe others see them? The results varied between countries and across the continent, providing an intriguing insight into Africans image of Africa.  People were asked how those living outside Africa would describe  their country – what makes them unique in terms of the way in which they behave and think. People could use as many words as they wished.    

Most Africans believe that their people and countries are perceived  as peaceful, polite and kind, rich in natural resources, hard working and places that can be looked up to. On the negative side, there is  acknowledgement of perceptions that African countries are poor, corrupt/dishonest, affected by diseases such as HIV/Aids and that there have been problems on the continent such as wars and genocide. 

Peaceful: In five countries peaceful scored strongly: Malawi (69%) Ghana (67%) Tanzania (64%) Zambia (52%) Cameroon (51%) and Kenya (43%) whereas in others Nigeria (11%),

Ivory Coast (10%) Rwanda (26%) and Mozambique (29%) the word was used by far fewer to describe themselves. 

Friendly: Ghana (59%) , Cameroon (35%) and Ivory Coast(32%) highly rated themselves as friendly. Nearly a quarter of Tanzanians and Ivorian said they would be described as laid back compared with just 5% of Ghanaians and 3% from Rwanda.

Unfriendly: was more likely to be attached to three countries: Ivory Coast, Malawi and Nigeria

 Polite/sociable: only 10% of Nigerians thought that their country would be described as polite/sociable whereas 59% in Ghana, 32% in Zambia and 22% in Tanzania and Malawi saw themselves in this way. 

Hardworking: nearly 4 in 10 Nigerians believed others saw them as hardworking, yet nearly 6 in 10 believed they were seen as corrupt and dishonest. 44% of Cameroonians also attached this description to themselves. 

Genocide and war were used by Rwandans (30%) and Ivorians(45%) to describe their countries, no doubt due to the memory of recent events in those countries. 

Poor/third world : The two countries where poor/third world were most often used were Mozambique and Tanzania where just under half used this description. 

African Landscape – Global Contribution 

Africans are very conscious of the richness of their continent as a source of raw materials and proud of their contribution to world peace and intellectual development. In every country raw materials and minerals were among the top 3 mentions in listing Africa’s biggest contribution to

the world. Those items specifically mentioned were gold, diamonds, cocoa, coffee, food, oil and labour.  

Across Africa 17% mentioned raw materials - this ranged from 42% in Ivory Coast and Ghana to under 1% in Malawi. Interestingly, just 20% of Nigerians mentioned this – although a quarter of Nigerians mentioned oil.

Some East Africans were less inclined to mention raw materials, only 5% in Kenya, although nearly 20% of Tanzanians listed it. Ghanaians and Ivorians are very aware of Africa as a source of gold, with 43% of the former mentioning it and nearly 17% of the latter. 

Despite its past prominence among Zambian exports, tobacco was mentioned by less than 1% of the population.

West Africans were more likely to mention labour than East Africans. 15% of Nigerians and 18% of Ivorians highlighted this as Africa’s greatest contribution compared to just 2% of Kenyans and 4% of Tanzanians. However, nearly 10% of those living in Mozambique mentioned cheap labour compared to less than 1% of those living in East African countries. The top mention among Mozambicans was slavery with 16%. This was hardly mentioned at all in the rest of Africa. No doubt, this reflects the historic potency of slavery as an issue in Mozambique that continues to be part of the national consciousness over 150 years since its formal abolition by the Portuguese. 

Nearly 4 in 10 Tanzanians believe that Africa’s greatest contribution has been fighting for peace worldwide. In West Africa, this was only mentioned by around 5% in Nigeria and less than 1% in Ghana.  Africans were also proud of producing people that are world figures – a cultural export. Nelson Mandela and Kofi Annan were widely mentioned as great people respected by the rest of the world. 

African Landscape - On Being African

 There is evidence of a strong feeling of ‘Africanness’ and a pride in being an African.  There is patriotism towards one’s country and the continent.   

Ethnic origins, country and ‘Africanness’ combine to produce a strong sense of identity in which disappointment at one’s own government’s shortcomings can be balanced against an admiration for the continent's positive legacy to the world. 

In nearly every country at least 9 in10 are proud to be African - with virtually everyone agreeing with this view in Ghana, Ivory Coast, Rwanda and Kenya.

Similar scores were found for loyalty to one’s country. Only in Mozambique did patriotism dropbelow 80%. 

Most African’s feelings are equally strong for their country and their ethnic/tribal group. Although in all countries at least 7 in 10 thought that ethnic ties and traditions had weakened over time There is a strong desire to preserve one’s tribal ethnic traditions with 78% in Kenya to 95% in Malawi supporting this view. 

Giving land back to the people is strongly supported across Africa. Only in Mozambique does this drop to 6 in 10 of the population elsewhere as many as 9 in 10 support this approach to land reform. Similar proportions believe that the land of our ancestors belong to us. This is particularly strongly felt in West Africa where it is supported by 9 in 10 Ghanaians and Ivorians. Only in Rwanda does this drop to 55%. 

African Landscape - Our Big Problems 

Poverty is regarded by nearly a quarter of Africans as the continent's most important problem. This was chosen by between 20-28% of people in each country. 

This is significantly ahead of other concerns mentioned. In most countries, HIV/Aids came second and unemployment a close third, followed by illiteracy and corruption/nepotism.

Unemployment was rated a more important issue among Nigerians than HIV/Aids with 14% mentioning it. Only in Tanzania and Ivory Coast did unemployment drop to single digits – 6%.

Illiteracy scored highest in Ghana (13%) and lowest in Cameroon (3%). 

Corruption and nepotism continue to be in the top 5 problems mentioned by those surveyed. This was particularly prominent as an issue in Cameroon (10%). The percentage of people that rated it was similar in most of the other African countries (4-9%).  

Crime, a major concern in many Western countries, does not particularly score as a major Problem in most Africans’ lives relative to the other issues they face. Fewer than 2% thought it was among the top problems facing Africa. However, most did not think that their governments were tackling this problem at all well. 

African Landscape –Muslim /Non-Muslim Comparisons 

There appear to be marked differences in attitudes and lifestyle between Muslims and non-Muslims. Muslims as a group, tend to have less education and have larger households. They tend to be less confident in the country, and in the government of the country, and more are inclined to believe that they are worse off now than they were a year ago. 

Muslims, more than non-Muslims, wish that traditional gender roles will be conserved, and believe largely than non-Muslims that their countries are being influenced by the west, and that their ethnic/tribal traditions have weakened over time. 

There is common agreement between Muslims and non-Muslims that poverty and HIV/AIDS are the scourge of Africa, but Muslims are more conscious of the problem of political conflict. Muslims also feel that not enough progress has been made in uniting all citizens, fighting corruption and controlling the influx of refugees/illegal immigrants.

It would appear that non-Muslims relate more strongly to the incumbent leaders in their countries than Muslims, and that many Muslims would prefer people other than their own president to represent their country. The indication that Muslims have less of a bond with the country’s leader than non-Muslims could explain to some extent why they are less confident in the country than non-Muslims. 

Top-of-mind aspirational issues with the strongest attraction for non- Muslims were to get a well/better paid job and more training and education. Muslims on the other hand wanted most to go on a pilgrimage, but also to improve their position in business. For all mentions combined, starting one’s own business and getting one’s own place/house also emerged as particularly important – especially for the non-Muslims. For the Muslims, going on a pilgrimage was of paramount importance with almost half the sample (45%) mentioning this as a goal. 

In common with non-Muslims, Muslims admired people such as Nelson Mandela, Kofi Annan and Thabo Mbeki the most. Differences between the two groups were the marked dislike for George Bush and Tony Blair evident among Muslims, and the moderate approval of Osama Bin Laden among Muslims compared to the strong dislike of the man among non-Muslims. Muslims are much more critical and distrustful of the United Kingdom and the United States of America than non-Muslims.

African Landscape –Information Sources 

Most Africans get their information from the local media. The main media used is radio, which is regularly used by 95% across Africa. TV follows this with 65% and then newspapers with 49%. 

This survey was conducted in urban areas where TV is likely to be available first in a country. A picture emerges of relatively slow penetration of this medium compared with other parts of the world. In 6 countries over half the people surveyed mention the use of TV as an information source. 

Radio is listened to by over 85% of the population of all African countries. TV viewing varies from 87% in the Ivory Coast to just 36% in Rwanda and 48% in Malawi.  

The print media is much weaker in many countries. However, In Rwanda, Tanzania and Malawi the press outweighs television in terms of a source of information - 85% of Ivorians and 69% of Tanzanians. In Nigeria use of the press is just over 1 in 3 of the population and 45% in Ghana.