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 A New Partnership against Poverty

Geldof Unveils Live 8 Show Plans

The Political Economy of Reforms in Ethiopia1991 – 2005

Africa debt deal Moves Welcomed

Campaigners seeking to end poverty in the developing world have cautiously welcomed US and UK moves to cancel the debts of Africa's poorest countries. Leading anti-poverty activist Bob Geldof said George W Bush and Tony Blair's announcement was a good start

On the meeting day, two leaders said they were close to agreeing a conditional write-off for the debts of 32 nations. The pair will seek backing for their plan from the world's richest nations at the G8 group's summit next month.  

The extension of the highly indebted poor countries initiative would include several countries in Latin America as well as some of Africa's poorest nations.

The US has also promised $674m (£350m) in aid for Africa, most of it for famine relief in Ethiopia and Eritrea - far less than Mr. Blair had hoped to secure.  

In a further sign of the problems besetting the continent, the UN warned in a report issued on Tuesday that targets to eradicate poverty and hunger in Africa by 2015 were likely to be missed, according to current trends.

Falling short  

Speaking to the BBC, Bob Geldof said he was encouraged by the outcome of Mr. Blair and Mr. Bush's meeting. "Blair went [to Washington] and there were lots of signals saying it was all a disaster but I think the US and UK have got an agreement on debt relief.  "With regard to doubling of aid, the Americans were never going to come that far, because the American economy is so bad."  

Kevin Watkins, director of the UN human development report office, was also cautiously positive.  "On debt relief, it sounds encouraging, it seems there has been some progress," he told the BBC.

"It's also good news that more aid has been announced for Africa, but all this stops an awful long way short of where we need to be."  

US shift  

The BBC News website's World Affairs correspondent, Paul Reynolds, says Mr Bush made a key shift in promising extra money to pay for the cancellation of debts to international financial institutions.  

He says Mr Bush had previously said any debts written off had to be deducted from future aid, but after the talks, he used a word, which aid experts were hoping for - "additional".  

"Our countries are developing a proposal for the G8 that will eliminate 100% of that debt, and that, by providing additional resources, will preserve the financial integrity of the World Bank and the African Development Bank," Mr Bush said.  

Mr. Bush stressed that good governance was important, saying, "Nobody wants to give money to a country that's corrupt, where leaders take money and put it in their pocket."  However, former African heads of state and government - meeting in Mali - expressed disappointment that Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair did not touch on the problems of trade barriers and access to markets for African goods.

HAVE YOUR SAY

I doubt that the richer nations will want to help Africa too much
Michael, UK

 

 Mr. Blair and Mr. Bush failed to agree on taking action against climate change - an issue Mr. Blair is hoping to highlight at July's G8 summit in Scotland.

Mr. Blair said he and the president had differences over the issue, which they hoped to discuss over the coming weeks.

 The US has consistently refused to ratify the Kyoto treaty, which restricts the emissions of gases said to be responsible.

How the debts grew

After widespread popular pressure in the late 1990s, the Highly Indebted Poor Countries inititiative was established to reduce debts owed to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. So far only 27 countries have qualified. Their repayments have been cut, freeing up money for health and education.

Many of the world's poorest countries are struggling with debts which have become vast compared to their incomes. Repayments on loans taken out in the 1960s and 70s spiralled as commodity prices fell and interest rates rose in the following decades. Africa has now paid back more than it originally borrowed - but still owes half as much again.

LETTER

Dr. Sheik Mohammed Hussein Al Amoudi

It is heart breaking to read the recent story of one of our contemporary philanthropists, Sheikh Mohammed H. Al Amoudi, being a target of defamation and intense hate campaign by a certain individual through an infantile radio program called, Ethiopiawinet. These days, it does not take much to set up a shoebox radio program. All it takes is a telephone line, a software program or two, and an access to the Internet.

We Love You Al Amoudi

The conditions of any free press are clear on defamation and label. One should be responsible for one’s expressions. Any labels or accusations made, unless substantiated, can be sufficient ground for a law suite, and

the law can punish those responsible.

This unscrupulous individual and his likes must be out of their minds to attack one of our heroes. This is senseless, to say the least. Sheikh Al Amoudi is a true son of Ethiopia, who continues to play a pivotal roll in improving the life of thousands of marginalized people in a section of the Ethiopian society, through productive investments, and carefully targeted social development programmes.

Has this senseless individual done anything comparable to Sheikh Al Amoudi? What has he done at all for Ethiopia, never mind the comparison to the Sheikh? 

I

 live in Sweden and I know how much the people here love and respect him for the great investments he has made. He has created the employment of over 15,000 people, and the Swedish government bestowed on him the highest national decoration to express their appreciation for his contribution to the country. Sweden is a democratic country with one of the most independent press in the world. Nevertheless, I can assure you, no one would find anything to defame in such an important person for expressing his political views or belonging to this or that political party. Every citizen has that right. 

Sheikh Al Amoudi’s investments in Sweden are purely for business interest.  His investments in Ethiopia, however, are mostly not in the context of capitalistic “return on investment

view. He simply wants to help his country get out of poverty. In Ethiopia anywhere from 200 to 300 thousand people, are in one way or another dependent on Al Amoudis generous investments. 

To Sheik Mohammed I want to say only one thing: you are a friend in need, our true friend and we all love you. Please disregard and ignore these silly attacks. 

I call on all true children of Ethiopia to take the necessary action on all individuals who engage in such malicious propaganda and defamation exercise, not just on the Sheikh, but on any one else.

Eng. Berhe Hagos

  Stockholm, Sweden.

 A New Partnership against Poverty

N

ever before, have so many people managed to free themselves form poverty.  Yet the number of poor people continues to rise.  To reverse this trend, poor people must themselves take control of their lives.  Achieving this is also a common challenge and duty for both poor and rich countries.  The principle at stale here is that of equal rights and opportunities for all. 

Globalization is creating ever-greater mutual dependencies.  Solidarity means assuming joint responsibility in the face of common challenges.  The living conditions of the poor are linked to ours through the increasingly integrated world economy, the global environment and our common natural resources.  Globalization is the great opportunity and the great threat of our time.  Cooperation, exchange and integration are in the interests of all.  For the poorest people and the poorest countries, however, there is a risk that globalization will cause further strain and increased marginalization.  Combating poverty is crucial to the maintenance of peace, democracy and sustainable development can only be achieved by reducing the differences in living conditions and, in time meeting the needs of the majority of the earth’s population.   

Poverty is not simply a question of a lack of material resources.  It also involves a lack of rights, knowledge and influence over one’s own life.  The fight against poverty must be waged by the poor countries themselves.  Their willingness to purse a policy that help those at the bottom of the economic and social ladder and mobilizes their own resources for the struggle is crucial. 

Development cooperation can make an important contribution by supporting poor people and poor countries to rid themselves of poverty and become a part of the international system of trade and integration.  For development, cooperation to provide effective support in the fight against poverty changes must be made on all sides, in particular in the relationship between donors – both bilateral and multilateral – and the partner countries.  A partnership must be established to fight poverty, based on self-reliance and acceptance of responsibility by the partner countries rather than on unilateral terms dictated by the donors.  There must be agreement on effective methods of fighting poverty.  Such a partnership must be based on respect for varying conditions and priorities prevailing in the partner countries.  UN, development banks, bilateral donors and NGOs must also be prepared to work together under the leadership of the partner country and not to pursue special interests that would make an effective fight against poverty impossible.  An equal relationship based on mutually agreed objectives and commitments, as well as explicit provisions concerning expiry and cancellation, must be set forth in a contract.  This in its turn will require investment in capacity building to enable the partner countries to formulate an anti-poverty policy and be recognized as equal partners.  There is plenty of scope here for development cooperation to make a worthwhile contribution. 

Poverty concerns were a prominent theme of the world conferences of the 90s, especially the Social Summit in Copenhagen in 1995.  The countries of the world have adopted common recommendations and committed themselves to fighting poverty.  However, there is no simple answer to the question of what constitutes an effective policy against poverty.  The success of the fight against poverty depends on the will and capacity of individual countries to pursue a policy that, given the specific, political, economic, social, cultural and institutional context, will promote equitable growth and social development and enhance security, capacity and opportunities.   

Developing cooperation makes a substantial contribution to lasting improvements for poor people by supporting economic, democratic and social reforms.  The principles formulated in 1962 in Government Bill 1962:100 on the role of development cooperation in ‘expanding trade, alleviating suffering, transferring knowledge and providing capital’ are still relevant to the task of designing a modern and effective development cooperation system for the 21st century.   The main objective is still to combat poverty.  This government report proposes, in particular in sections 5 and 6, ways of strengthening, the anti-poverty profile of Sweden’s development cooperation, in terms of strategy and methods, though different channels and at different levels. 

More that 30 years’ experience of development cooperation has taught us that the fight against poverty necessitates an integrated approach based on interaction between political, economic, environmental and social development.  There is no standard formula for development cooperation in the form of a specific menu of measures that automatically help to reduce poverty.  The approach must be to help to create the conditions for and promote interaction between economic, democratic, social and human development and to strengthen these processes with the participation of the poor themselves.  It is not a question of building up isolated islands of social services or physical infrastructure that the dependent on continuous external financing. 

Various forms of development cooperation, such as support for democratization or economic reforms, can provide effective support for the fight against poverty.  Debt relief can release for education and health care.  Micro-credits can create employment and opportunities for children to go to school.   However, irrespective of the specific measure, the poverty aspect must always be taken into account in assessments and analyses.  Is the government prepared to distribute the resources thus released in such a way as to benefit the poor?  Are local conditions conducive to credible credit systems and a market where the poor can sell their products and services?  These are the kinds of questions that need to be answered.   

Poverty is multidimensional phenomenon, which must be fought in many ways and at different levels.  Poverty is neither homogeneous nor static and its attributes vary from region to region and even between members of the same household.  Supporting the fight against poverty requires great knowledge, expertise and flexibility.  It also requires an understanding of the interrelation between issues of a local, national and global nature – the interrelation between ‘macro’ and ‘micro’.  It requires support for greater involvement by the population in different forms and at different levels, including involvement in analysis, implementation, monitoring and evaluation by those who are immediately concerned.   

The effects of development cooperation on poor women, men and children must also be evaluated.   Anticipated effects must be identified and studied before decisions about support are taken based on various indicators – both quantitative and qualitative, poor people’s perception of their poverty, and national studies, which should be carried out largely by the countries themselves. 

Poverty has different causes and effects for women and men and they experience poverty differently. Policy and programme development must be based on gender analysis with special reference to needs, roles, the division of responsibilities and access to and control over resources and influence.  Structural obstacles to women’s participation in political life or their right to inherit or acquireland, a lack of gender-specific statistics and ignorance of how legislation and economic reforms affect women and men are example of areas where development cooperation can contribute to greater equality and improve the prospect of fighting poverty.    

Knowledge is power.  Investment is education is therefore crucial to making knowledge available to marginalized groups, promoting the growth of a democratic culture and facilitating the integration of the poor into the economy.  The education of women has a considerable impact on their standard of living and that of their and not least their children.  Improving children’s opportunities, especially by making it possible for them to complete a school education, is the most important investment in a nation’s future. 

Development cooperation can make a significant contribution by working, in both multilateral and bilateral for a, for compliance with the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, by enforcing binding commitments concerning children in armed conflicts and by banning the commercial and sexual exploitation of children.  

Ill-health, which prevents poor people from using their productive resources, is an important cause of poverty and a factor that impedes growth and development.  Supporting health reforms in order to build up adequate health services that are available to the poor therefore represents an important investment in capacity enhancement. 

There is a close but complex connection between environment and poverty.  Many environmental problems are caused or exacerbated by poverty.  Fighting poverty is therefore necessary to achieve development that is sustainable from the point of view of natural resources, while measures to improve the environment are crucial to reducing poverty. 

Sustainability and stability are key concept in all aspects of the fight against poverty.  Development cooperation must consider this when it comes to supporting poor countries and the poor themselves, locally, nationally and in international collaboration.  

The local level 

The best way of fighting poverty is to support conditions, which will enable the poor themselves to overcome of their poverty.  This means strengthening personal security by offering the prospect of a secure livelihood, enhancing capacity by providing health services, education and other skills, and enabling people to gain control over resources and participate in decision-making processes.  The point of departure has to be poor people’s own perception of poverty and a good life and their own opinion of how to overcome poverty. 

At the local level this means creating opportunities for gainful employment, for example by providing access to land, water and tools, as well as by providing access to land, water and tools, as well as by providing support for small businesses and micro-credits – particularly to women in rural areas – and for small-scale infrastructure.  It also means improving opportunities for the local community to invest in human resources by providing health care and schools.  It also means enabling poor women and men to influence their situation by offering them better opportunities to participate in political life and to assert their rights.  This can be achieved, for example, by supporting local organizations, local government, local democracy and a decentralized legal system with a view to encouraging processes, which will in time change the local balance of power.  A strong anti-poverty profile will encourage new partnerships that directly support local authorities with the assistance of local NGOs and private companies.  

The national level 

The main responsibility for combating poverty lies with the government and people in the partner countries.  Development cooperation can contribute to the fight against poverty by supporting by supporting domestic processes.  The chances of success vary from country to country.  The most promising candidates are countries, which pursue an anti-poverty policy and policies conducive to sustainable development in economical, social and environmental terms.

The goals should be equitable growth that satisfies the following criteria:

  •  It must be consistent with a long-term sustainable utilization of natural resources,

  • It must integrate a gender equality perspective;

  • It must be broad and distributed geographically;

  • It must have a positive impact on the incomes of important social groups and of the majority of the population,

  •  It must lead to increased employment.

 Another necessary condition is that growth is used to strengthen government and make it more efficient by supporting institutions, building capacity and skills, implementing a reform of public administration, including delegation of authority to local government.  This should enable for the public sector, industry and a dynamic civil society to help in the fight against poverty.  

Civil society plays a key role.  Swedish NGOs must make better use of their contacts, knowledge and networks to support the growth of a strong and pluralistic civil society that can represent the interests of the poor and help development cooperation to build a distinct and sustainable anti-poverty profile. 

Cooperation with individual countries should be based on a broad partnership, which goes beyond the conventional donor recipient.  Within the framework of this partnership, there should be a dialogue-involving central government, NGOs and the private sector, both in the donor and partner countries.   The partnership contract should establish a joint commitment to fighting poverty and provide for poverty analysis based on consultation processes and popular agreement.   

Long-term bilateral development cooperation should concentrate on poor countries whose governments have the political will and capacity to pursue a successful anti—poverty policy and where partnership and policy dialogue can contribute to this process.  In other countries Sweden can support measures designed to give the poor a better life, for example pilot projects supported by the local population, which can serve as examples of participation, acceptance of responsibility and resource mobilization. 

The international level 

Globalization and marginalization have not reduced the dependence of poor countries on the international economy.  For practically all developing countries, the rich countries’ markets mean more than development assistance.  National and transboundary environmental problems hit the poor especially hard.   

Combating poverty within the framework of development cooperation demands greater4 coherence with other areas such as security, trade, agriculture and the environment.  Consequently, Sweden must make greater efforts to promote the dismantling of trade barriers that block imports from poor countries and the opening of global agricultural markets, the EU in particular, for their exports.  It also means greater efforts to settle conflicts by peaceful means within the framework of security policy.   

Internationally, Sweden should continue to urge the adoption of a more explicit anti-poverty profile in the UN’s development cooperation, in the development banks’ lending and policy dialogue and the EU’s development cooperation.  This would involve strengthening the anti-poverty profile of the country strategies adopted together with the partner countries and ensuring that objectives and policies also have a practical effect.  It would also require greater knowledge about and capacity for work on poverty issues in the multilateral organizations and upgrading of country operations.  In both bilateral and multilateral development cooperation Sweden should seek to replace traditional donor-dominated by programme assistance agree with the partner countries based on their priorities.  A transition to programme assistance within the framework of a partnership might improve the prospect of a successful fight against poverty. 

Sweden should also seek to introduce a conflict management perspective into both humanitarian aid and long-term development cooperation.  In international for a Sweden will also continue to urge respect for human rights in both rich and poor countries. 

An essential condition for reducing poverty is a sustainable solution to the debt problems of low-income countries.  Sweden should continue to work for a final solution to the debt problems of the poorest countries, inter alia by supporting and developing initiatives such as HIPC. 

Strengthening the anti-poverty profile of development cooperation will make it necessary to achieve sustainable results.  Better coordination is essential.  A partnership against poverty imposes considerable demands, particularly in terms of the approach and methods applied by the donors.  It will also take time and patience fore the new relationship to grow strong and stable. 

It is possible to combat poverty.  It will require a great deal of effort by poor people and poor countries.  It will also require a great deal from us.  In an increasingly globalized world, the fight against poverty is a common interest and a common duty.  Only based on solidarity can we create a world, which respects the equal rights and value of its entire people.

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Geldof Unveils Live 8 Show Plans

Bob Geldof has unveiled plans for a repeat of 1985's Live Aid concert, called Live 8, to highlight the ongoing problem of Global poverty and debt

The free event will be held in London's Hyde Park on 2 July with concerts in Philadelphia, Paris, Rome and Berlin.

Madonna and Sir Paul McCartney are among stars playing in London while Stevie Wonder is on the US line-up. A text message lottery is being held on 6 June to determine who will gain tickets to the UK concert.

Listeners to breakfast shows on BBC and commercial radio stations will be asked to send a text message at 0800 BST containing the answer to a multiple choice question. The winners will get two tickets to the show.  It will also be shown on big screens in seven cities across the UK, and shown live on BBC TV and radio.  

Will Smith, Bon Jovi, Stevie Wonder and Maroon 5 are among the performers who will play the US city's Cradle of America venue.  Veteran band Duran Duran will play in Rome, while A-ha will perform in Berlin.

Sir Elton John said he was "extremely honoured" to be taking part in the event, which he added will feature "la creme de la creme of musicians".

Geldof said there was a strong possibility that the Spice Girls would reform for the concert. "I spoke to them this morning. It looks very good. That's all we can say," he told the BBC.

The aim will be to raise awareness of Make Poverty History, a campaign to get the richest nations to cancel debt and increase aid to developing countries, and to promote fair trade.  The G8 summit takes place from 6 to 8 July at Gleneagles in Scotland.  Some economists were sceptical the aims of the Make Poverty History campaign would help the people it was targeted at.  

Kendra Okonski, of the International Policy Network, said debt relief, aid and trade justice had been a "demonstrable failure" for decades. "Aid has tended to reward failing governments and undermine democracy," she said.   "In the case of Uganda, they're waging an illegal war with aid money that's given by the United States.    

"Debt per se is not a bad thing. Lots of us have mortgages.  "If you say all debts are forgiven it actually punishes countries which are doing a good job paying back their debt."   

Geldof said the event was "not for charity but political justice", adding that organisers had "scrambled like crazy" to stage the concerts to highlight the plight of Africa.  

"This is too finally, as much as we can, put a stop to that," said the political campaigner and musician. There is more than a chance that the boys and girls with guitars finally get to tilts the world on its axis," he added.  

Jonathan Ross will present the BBC's coverage in the UK, while Graham Norton will report from Philadelphia. The UK govern-ment has backed the project, with Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell saying Live 8 will "set the scene" for the G8 summit. Meanwhile, the Band Aid Trust has recouped more than £2m in VAT from the government, which was made from DVD sales of the 1985 Live Aid concert.  

"We want it to be the biggest and best open air concert that the capital has ever seen," she said. The original Live Aid concerts, on 13 July 1985 in Wembley Stadium and JFK Stadium, Philadelphia, raised £40m for famine relief in Africa.

 Madonna, sir Paul McCartney Coldplay,sir Elton John Robbie Williams, Will smith stevie Wonder

       The Political Economy of Reforms in Ethiopia1991 – 2005

By Prof. Kinfe Abraham

Prof .Kinfe Abraham

Other Reforms; Ensuring Food Security

 The other area of focus of the EPRDF (apart from macro economic issues), was agriculture and the achievement of food security. This was underscored by the fact that the country has numerous river basins with vast irrigable land which offer great potential for self sufficiency in food production and agricultural exports.

The above optimism was further bolstered by Ethiopia's fertile soil and good climate which are suitable for agricultural development. It was also highlighted by the fact that Agriculture is a pivotal sector of the Ethiopian economy. It accounts for 50 percent of the GDP, 65 percent of total exports and 80-85 percent of all employment. Yet, the sector has for a long time being dominated by small-holding peasant farmers and a few state and commercial farms.              

As stated above, agriculture accounts for most of the export earnings. Until recently, coffee constituted up to 85 percent of the total agricultural export earnings.11 In fact, as agriculture is the bedrock of the economy, the new Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization (ADLI) is also based on stimulating the agrarian sector. ADIL also aims to promote the broad-based development of the country.

The importance of the agrarian sector which is hoped to be the basis of industrial development is also underpinned by the fact that it accounts for 50 percent of the GDP while the other 50 percent of comes from manufac­tur­ing, mining, tourism, trade, construc­tion and services. The industrial sector is as yet not well developed, accounting for only 12 percent of the GDP. It produces consumer goods for the domestic and international market.12 The ADLI policy thus aims to promote industrializa­tion by domestically producing industrial inputs from the agricultural sector. At present, manufac­tured exports include: textiles, food stuff, tobacco, beverages, leather and leather products, canned and frozen meat, sugar, molasses, oil cakes, and metallic and non-metallic substances.

Mining accounts for less than 1 percent of the GDP. Nevertheless, it is still an unexploited sector. Gold, copper, platinum, nickel, iron ore, coal, marble, potash, silica, lime­stone, diatomite could be exploited on a large-scale. Oil and natural gas are also available for exploitation. The new in­vest­ment code, with its various incentives, including tax holidays, has rekindled foreign interest in Ethiopia's minerals.13

Some Results of the Early Reforms 1992/93-96/97

 All in all, since the introduction of the new market-oriented economic policy in 1992, a number of policy measures and reforms have been undertaken. These include:

  • short-term economic stabilization and structural adjustment measures such as deregulation of domestic prices, abolition of export taxes and subsidies;

  • liberalization of foreign trade;

  • privatization of public enterprises; and

  • the promulgation of liberalized investment laws for the promotion and encouragement of domestic and foreign private investment.14

Due to these liberalization measures, the GDP (at current market price) rose from 20.8 billion Birr in 1991/92 to 41.1 billion Birr in 1996/97. Annual growth rate of GDP (at current factor cost) was on the average 7 percent, from 1991/92 to 1996/97.

Gross fixed domestic investment rose from 9.4 percent of GDP to 20.3 percent of GDP during the above years. Gross domestic savings grew from 3.0 percent of GDP to 9.4 percent of GDP during these years. The inflation rate dropped from its level of 21 percent in 1991/92 to less than 1 percent in 1996/97.15

Key Macro-Economic Indicators16 

Year 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices (billion Birr) 26.7 28.3 33.9 37.9 41.1
Annual Growth rate of GDP (in percent) (constant factor cost)  12.0 1.7 5.4 7.6 8.4
Gross Fixed Domestic Investment (percent of GDP) 12.2 15.1 15.7 21.0 20.3
Gross domestic Saving (percent of GDP) 5.6 5.0 6.7 6.6 9.4

Balance of Trade (mn USD)

Exports

Imports

Balance

         
222.4

1051.8

-829.4

279.6

914.6

-633.8

410.2

1063.0

-607.9

410.2

1412.9

-1002.7

6.4.3

1341.8

-737.5

Economic Trends in the Late 1990s 

In October 1996, Ethiopia entered a three-year ESAF (Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility) arrange­ment with the IMF and embarked on the third phase of the reform program, which covered the period 1996/97–1998/99. Under this program, the government committed itself to reduce poverty by achieving broad-based economic growth in a stable macro-economic environment.17

The FDRE also lowered the maximum import tariff rates from 60 percent to 50 percent in December 1996 and eliminated the retail price control on fertiliser. But the first ann-ual ESAF arra-ngement was extended to October 1997, because the IMF and the FDRE could not arrive at an understan-ding on a policy package which could cover the period 1997/98 and bring the program back to track.18 

During the fiscal year 1997/98, the government introduced a financial service tax which unified the hitherto diversified taxes on coffee. It also began institu­tional reform of the Reve­nue and Customs Authorities to expedite revenue collection and enhance the tax administra­tion. On structural reform, the investment code was revised to allow foreign participation in the telecommu­nications and power sectors, and a foreclo­sure law was introduced. The economy achieved 0.5 percent real growth in 1997/98 (against 5.6 percent in the preceding year), because of adverse climatic conditions.

Nevertheless, there was little impact on food prices as the country had good food reserves and there was significant food aid. As a result, average inflation was kept at about 2.5 percent in 1997/98.19  

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